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 ZT-Latest rumored USD mini crisis |
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海归网黄金小狼
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头衔: 海归少校
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加入时间: 2006/12/14
文章: 334
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作者：海归网黄金小狼 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Last week, there were meetings between Treasury Secretary Paulson and Fed Chair Bernanke, and other 'A' team US trade and banking representatives with China. This meeting resulted in a number of internet rumors and some verifiable comments that China is not giving in to US demands for a revalued Yuan/RMB. That is causing the US congress to get very mad, there are trade sanctions coming in 07. The Chinese evidently threatened to dump the USD - they have about a $trillion. Then a very interesting development - the Mid East oil nations stated they will be severely harmed by a collapsing USD if China dumps it. They threatened to embargo oil to China should they dump the USD. All of this shows how high the stakes are going into 07 for the USD - and how serious this USD situation is now. I think we can say, the USD situation is now at a crisis stage.
Formerly, the gold and other financial community has been tracking the financial mess the US has found itself in, with huge trade and fiscal deficits combined well over $1trillion a year. There has been so much written about this that people probably are saying 'you guys have been talking about this for years - and not much has happened!'
Well, I can say that, having tracked this issue closely now for years, we are at a definite turning point. The once 'far off' end of the USD is now at hand or at least very much at risk of happening. The recipe is now in place, irreconcilable differences between China and the US over their undervalued Yuan, and pending US trade sanctions with a bold Democratic US congress.
From what I have heard, when the Chinese floated their idea (threatened) to go ahead and actually dump the USD this last week, first the EU told them they would not sell them enough Euros. Then, the Mid East Oil nations said they will not sell China oil if they dump the USD. China, however is not the type of nation to like being dictated to. They won't let the US dictate to them with trade sanction threats, and they won't take any EU interference in this situation well either, nor will they take Arab oil hostility well either. Also, the moderate Arabs are concerned that a paralyzed US would leave them wide open to a hostile domineering Iran.
The problem China has is it cannot give much ground on the Yuan (their view), or else something worse they fear will happen to them -an economic contraction and millions of rampaging peasants who already feel the economic largess has bypassed them.
These factors add up to a very good chance that China will retaliate against the USD anyway in 07. I don't see them escaping from US trade sanctions this year, and the Chinese apparently believe they cannot do the things the US is demanding. So, somehow, this year, the Chinese may pull the plug on the USD.
作者：海归网黄金小狼 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 ZT-Latest rumored USD mini crisis -- 海归网黄金小狼 - (2804 Byte) 2006-12-31 周日, 02:45 (617 reads)
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