| 作者 |
 Commodity "Bubble" Review, for 隔世兄及其他朋友 |
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Theme
头衔: 海归少校
加入时间: 2004/05/03
文章: 214
海归分: 28969
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作者：Theme 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Given we hear about commodity bubbles from Mr. Buffet and Mr. Roach and the like, the people on this board, know my view on this issue. I would like to take this time to do some review of my point.
Let's use stock market and RE market as control.
From the 2002 lows to May 2006 high, the percent gain in the US market
$SPX 73%
$RUT 141%
$COMP 114%
Gain from Emerging Markets,
MSCI Emerging Market Index 205%
Gain from other developed Markets:
Aisa use $NIKK 135%
Europe use $FTSE 85%
Let's compare to key commodities
$CRB 60%
$GOLD 144%
$WTIC 200%
California Real Estate
up at least 150%? or this is conservative?
Shanghai RE:
up at least 150% or this is conservative?
What do the above data show?
To me, this basically shows we are in global asset inflation induced by CB's massive liquidity ejection . If Mr. Buffet or Mr. Roach thinks commodity are bubbles, how about equities? If US government thinks RE is not a buble,
why $CRB?
I would be the first to admit that some commdities, like copper, are getting too much ahead of itself. However, given the constant liquity ejection from global central banks, I would say that until $CRB triple from here,
I would not rate commodities as bubble.
作者：Theme 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 Commodity "Bubble" Review, for 隔世兄及其他朋友 -- Theme - (1256 Byte) 2006-5-28 周日, 04:50 (1601 reads)
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