| 作者 |
 下一个大的经济浪潮在哪里？请各位高人指教 |
 |
| 所跟贴 |
it's dangerous to speculate on commodities, especially at these -- 大甩 - (229 Byte) 2005-1-18 周二, 03:09 (455 reads) |
恍如隔世
[博客]
[个人文集]
头衔: 海归少将
声望: 学员
性别: 
加入时间: 2004/10/04
文章: 971
海归分: 307339
|
|
|
作者：恍如隔世 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
myth: it is dangerous to speculate on commodities
truth: you can buy commodities with no leverage, put up $1000 to buy $1000 worth of copper, for example, not buying on the margin. The fluctuation of commodities is no greater than Cisco stocks. If you buy IBM stocks at 10% margin, it is equally dangerous.
myth: commodities are too high now.
truth: adjusting for inflation, the majority of commodities are at least 50% below their 70' all time highs. Take a look at the 20 year chart of coffee, suger, soybean, wheat, or even crude oil. Oil was at $80 in 1980 (adjusted for inflation).
myth: sudden increase in supply
truth: it takes a long time (5-10 years) to bring on supply in commodities. Think about how long does it take to find and drill and develop a mine, a oil field. It is not like high-tech, which can be done by three guys in a garage.
myth: sudden decrease in demand
truth: does anybody suddenly eat two meals a day when they usually eat three meals a day? I don't. Does anyone start going to work 2.5 days a week instead of 5 days a week just because the gas price has jumped up. I don't.
作者：恍如隔世 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由恍如隔世于2006-4-14 周五, 12:13修改，总共修改了1次
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
| |
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
